As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China plays a pivotal role in the global fight against climate change. The country’s policies and actions are critical to achieving the global climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement, particularly the objective of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, with efforts to keep it within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, as the international community gears up for another crucial United Nations climate summit, all eyes are on China to see whether it will introduce more ambitious climate targets. Despite the high expectations, China has offered few new commitments, raising concerns about the global effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
China’s Role in Global Carbon Emissions
China’s economic transformation over the past four decades has been nothing short of remarkable, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty and establishing the country as a global economic powerhouse. However, this rapid industrialization has come at a significant environmental cost. China is now the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2), accounting for nearly 30% of global emissions. Much of this is due to the country’s heavy reliance on coal, which is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel.
The scale of China’s emissions means that any meaningful global climate action must involve significant reductions in its carbon output. Without China’s full participation, the world’s chances of meeting its climate goals are slim. This reality places considerable pressure on China to lead by example in the fight against climate change.
China’s Climate Commitments So Far
China has made several high-profile climate commitments in recent years, signaling its recognition of the need to address its carbon footprint. In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced that China would aim to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This announcement was seen as a major step forward and was widely praised by the international community.
To meet these goals, China has pledged to reduce its carbon intensity—CO2 emissions per unit of GDP—by over 65% from 2005 levels by 2030. The country also aims to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in its primary energy mix to around 25% by the same year. Additionally, China has committed to increasing its forest stock and installing 1,200 gigawatts of solar and wind power capacity by 2030.
These targets represent significant progress, especially given the scale of China’s economy and its dependence on coal. However, critics argue that these commitments are insufficient to keep global warming within the 1.5°C target. They also point out that China’s continued investment in coal-fired power plants, both domestically and abroad, undermines its climate pledges.
The Absence of New Targets Ahead of the U.N. Summit
As the world prepares for the upcoming U.N. climate summit, there has been intense speculation about whether China would announce new, more ambitious climate targets. Given the urgency of the climate crisis and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, many hoped that China would seize the moment to enhance its commitments.
However, China has offered few new targets in the lead-up to the summit. Instead, the country has reiterated its existing commitments, emphasizing its efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy while also prioritizing economic development and energy security. This cautious approach reflects China’s complex balancing act between its climate responsibilities and its development goals.
China’s reluctance to introduce new targets may also be influenced by several domestic and international factors. Domestically, China faces significant challenges in reducing its reliance on coal. Coal remains a key source of energy for the country, providing jobs and supporting economic growth, particularly in less developed regions. The recent energy crisis, which saw widespread power shortages and blackouts, has underscored the difficulties of moving away from coal too quickly.
Internationally, China may be hesitant to commit to more ambitious targets without similar commitments from other major emitters, particularly the United States. The relationship between the two countries has been fraught with tension, and China has often emphasized the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, which acknowledges that developed countries bear a greater historical responsibility for climate change.
The Implications of China’s Position
China’s decision not to introduce new climate targets ahead of the U.N. summit has significant implications for the global effort to combat climate change. As the world’s largest emitter, China’s actions—or lack thereof—set the tone for international climate negotiations. Without stronger commitments from China, other countries may be less inclined to enhance their own targets, leading to a potential impasse in global climate action.
Moreover, China’s current targets, while ambitious, may not be enough to prevent the worst impacts of climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global emissions need to be halved by 2030 to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. Given China’s size and influence, the country’s emissions trajectory will have a significant bearing on whether the world can achieve this goal.
There are also concerns that China’s continued investment in coal-fired power plants could lock in high levels of emissions for decades to come. While China has pledged to stop building new coal projects abroad, it continues to approve new coal plants domestically. This contradiction between China’s climate commitments and its energy policies raises questions about the country’s ability to achieve its carbon neutrality goal by 2060.
Opportunities for Future Progress
Despite these challenges, there are opportunities for China to play a leading role in the global fight against climate change. China has already made significant strides in renewable energy, becoming the world’s largest producer of solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. By continuing to invest in clean energy technologies and scaling up their deployment, China can reduce its reliance on coal and accelerate its transition to a low-carbon economy.
China can also leverage its position as a global manufacturing hub to drive the adoption of green technologies worldwide. By exporting affordable clean energy products and sharing its expertise in renewable energy deployment, China can help other countries, particularly developing nations, to achieve their climate goals.
In addition, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) presents an opportunity to promote sustainable development on a global scale. By prioritizing green infrastructure projects and supporting low-carbon development in partner countries, China can help to ensure that the BRI contributes to global climate goals rather than exacerbating the problem.
Lastly, China’s leadership in global climate finance could be instrumental in bridging the gap between developed and developing countries. By increasing its contributions to international climate funds and supporting capacity-building efforts, China can help to ensure that all countries have the resources they need to tackle climate change.
